Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in divisions 7.a South of 52°30’N, 7.g-h, and 7.j-k (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, and southwest of Ireland)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.irls
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
21307
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.32133742.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F2–5
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)*
% SSB change**
% total allowable catch (TAC) change***
% advice change^
Probability of SSB (2027) less than Blim^^
2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: zero catch 0 0 19637 -4.1 -100
Other scenarios
FMSY 4644 0.26 17459 -14.8 434.4
FMSY×SSB2026/MSYBtrigger 1904 0.099 18774 -8.3 119.1
F=0 0 0 19637 -4.1 -100
FPA 4644 0.26 17459 -14.8 434.4
SSB2027=Blim^^^
SSB2027=BPA^^^
SSB2027=MSYBtrigger^^^
F=F2026 926 0.047 19222 -6.2 6.6
TAC=monitoring TAC 869 0.044 19248 -6 0




Symbol Footnotes
* For this autumn- and winter-spawning stock, the SSB is determined at spawning time (October) and is influenced by fisheries between 01 April and spawning.
** SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.
*** Total catch in 2027 relative to the advised monitoring TAC in 2026 (869tonnes).
^ The advised catch for 2026 was zero tonnes.
^^ The forecast is deterministic so it is not possible to calculate this probability.
^^^ Blim, BPA, and MSYBtrigger cannot be achieved in 2027, even with zero catch.