Advice and Scenarios Database



Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pra.27.3a4a
Assessment Year
2022
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
16953
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.19453658.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Q1 and Q2 catch (2023)^
Ftotal (2023)/FMSY
Stock size (2024)/Btrigger
% probability^^ of SSB (2024) less than Blim
% probability^^ of SSB (2024) greater than Btrigger
% SSB change*
% TAC change **
% advice change***
2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2023 2023
(t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: F=FMSY×(SSB2023/MSY Btrigger) 11646 5882 0.6764 1.33 0.6 96 51 51
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 0 1.8 0 165 -100 -100
Fpa 17814 8997 1.13 1.05 6.8 54 131 131
F2022 12186 6155 0.71 1.31 0.8 93 58 58
SSB2024= Blim 27765 14023 2.08 0.67 44.6 -1.47 260 260
SSB2024=Bpa=Btrigger 19280 9738 1.25 0.99 16.5 46 150 150




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2024/MSYBtrigger relative to predicted SSB2023/MSYBtrigger.
** Advised catch in 2023 relative to advised catch in 2022 (7712t).
^ Total catch 2023×average proportion of catch taken in the first six months of each of the years 2017–2021 (0.505).
^^ Note this probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB less than Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB less than Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.