Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in Division 7.a North of 52°30’N (Irish Sea)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.nirs
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
21319
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.32133760.v1






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total Catch
F2–4
SSB*
SSB*,^
% SSB change**
% advice change ^^
% TAC change^^^
Probability SSB less than Blim (%)***
2027 2027 2027 2028 2027 2027 2027 2027
(t) (ratio) (t) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × (SSB2026/MSY Btrigger) 3716 0.23 12189 13122 13.4 27 -11.1 5.1
Other scenarios
F = 0 0 0 14933 18888 39 -100 -100 0.4
F = Fpa = FMSY 4037 0.25 11952 12722 11.2 38 -3.4 5.8
F = Fsq 4451 0.28 11622 12189 8.2 52 6.5 7.4
SSB2027 = Blim 10344 0.83 7352 6088 -32 250 148 50
SSB2027 = Bpa = MSY Btrigger 4233 0.26 11793 12474 9.8 44 1.3 6.5




Symbol Footnotes
* For autumn-spawning stocks, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) is determined at spawning time and is influenced by fisheries between 01 January and spawning (set for September).
** SSB2027 relative to SSB2026 (10 744 tonnes).
*** The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulation when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^ Assuming same fishing mortality in 2028 as in 2027.
^^ Advice value for 2027 relative to the advice value for 2026 (2 935 tonnes).
^^^ Total catch in 2027 relative to the total allowable catch (TAC) in 2026 (4 178 tonnes).