Advice and Scenarios Database



Sole (Solea solea) in divisions 8.a-b (northern and central Bay of Biscay)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
sol.27.8ab
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
22607
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.25019684






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards
Fages 3–7 total
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change #
% total allowable catch (TAC) change ##
% advice change ^^
% Probability SSB less than Blim *,**
2027 2027 2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 2028
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP ^: F = FMSY × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger 2271 2257 14 0.27 9039 -0.1 -8.5 -8.5 6.2
EU MAP ^: F = FMSY lower × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger 1498 1489 9 0.17 9899 9.4 -39.6 -10 1.1
Other scenarios
FMSY 2552 2537 15 0.31 8812 -2.7 2.8 2.8 11.1
FMSY lower 1732 1723 9 0.2 9653 6.6 -30.2 -30.2 2
F = 0 0 0 0 0 11323 25 -100 -100 0.1
FPA 3374 3354 20 0.43 7965 -12 35.9 35.9 31
SSB2028 = Blim 3866 3843 23 0.512 7470 -17.5 56 56 50
SSB2028 = BPA = MSYBtrigger 921 916 5 0.102 10460 15.6 -63 -63 0.1
SSB2028 = SSB2027 2308 2294 14 0.274 9052 0 -7 -7 7
F = F2025 2560 2545 15 0.31 8752 -3.3 3.1 3.1 11.1
Total catch equal to TAC2026 2482 2468 14 0.299 8897 -1.7 0 0 10.4
Probability of (SSB2028<;Blim)=5% 2116 2104 12 0.25 9314 2.9 -14.7 -14.7 5




Symbol Footnotes
* The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim, fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference point. The current forecast methodology may underestimate the uncertainty around incoming recruitment (age 2) that contributes to the SSB in 2028. Therefore, the probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028 should be considered an underestimate.
** 0.1 means less than 1%
# SSB in 2028 relative to SSB in 2027 (9 052 tonnes).
## Total catch in 2027 relative to TAC in 2026 (2 482 tonnes)
^ The EU multiannual plan (MAP; EU, 2019).
^^ Advice values for 2027 relative to the corresponding 2026 values (FMSY 2 482 tonnes, FMSY lower 1 664 tonnes). All other scenarios are relative to the 2026 value for the FMSY scenario (2 482 tonnes)