Advice and Scenarios Database



Hake (Merluccius merluccius) in divisions 8.c and 9.a, Southern stock (Cantabrian Sea and Atlantic Iberian waters)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
hke.27.8c9a
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
23751
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932111






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards
Fages 1–7 total
Fages 1–7 projected landings
Fages 1–7 projected discards
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change *
% total allowable catch (TAC) change^
% advice change^^
% Probability SSB less than Blim **,#
2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 2028
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU MAP F = FMSY^^^ 11886 11412 474 0.22 0.21 0.0088 24328 0 -32 -20 0.1
EU MAP F = FMSY lower 8420 8092 328 0.151 0.145 0.0059 26451 8.8 -52 -20 0.1
EU MAP F=FMSY upper 15985 15327 658 0.31 0.3 0.0128 21857 -10.1 -8.4 -21 0.1
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31717 30 -100 -100 0.1
F=FPA 25445 24311 1134 0.56 0.54 0.025 16338 -33 46 71 0.1
SSB (2028)=Blim*** 45258 42704 2554 1.44 1.36 0.081 6011 -75 159 204 55
SSB (2028)=BPA= MSYBtrigger 41990 39733 2257 1.23 1.16 0.066 7556 -69 141 182 16.2
SSB (2028)=SSB (2027) 11911 11436 475 0.22 0.21 0.0088 24313 0 -32 -20 0.1
F=F2026 11206 10761 445 0.21 0.2 0.0083 24743 1.77 -36 -25 0.1
Catch advice 2027= TAC2026 17445 16719 726 0.35 0.34 0.0146 20987 -13.7 0 17 0.1




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027 (24 313 tonnes).
** The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim, fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference point.
*** The probability is not exactly 0.50 because of the asymmetric error distribution.
# 0.1 means less than 1%
^ Total catch in 2027 relative to 2026 TAC (17445 tonnes).
^^ Advice values for 2027 relative to the corresponding 2026 values (FMSY 14 907 tonnes, FMSY lower 10 526 tonnes, FMSY upper 20 125 tonnes). All other scenarios are relative to the 2026 value for the FMSY scenario (14 907 tonnes).
^^^ The EU multiannual plan (MAP; EU, 2019).