Advice and Scenarios Database



Hake (Merluccius merluccius) in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and divisions 3.a, 8.a-b, and 8.d, Northern stock (Greater North Sea, Celtic Seas, and the northern Bay of Biscay)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
hke.27.3a46-8abd
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
22627
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932108






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards
Fages 1–7 total
Fages 1–7 projected landings
Fages 1–7 projected discards
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change *
% advice change**
% Probability SSB less than Blim ***,^^^
2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2028
(t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach = FMSY 46824 43255 3569 0.24 0.22 0.0185 89670 -6.5 -14.7 0.1
Other scenarios
EU MAP^: FMSY 46824 43255 3569 0.24 0.22 0.0185 89670 -6.5 -14.7 0.1
F = MAP^:FMSY lower 29924 27699 2225 0.147 0.136 0.0109 100613 5 -46 0.1
F = MAP^:FMSY upper 66443 61215 5227 0.37 0.34 0.029 77137 -20 21 3
F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120277 25 -100 0.1
F = FPA 88208 80988 7220 0.54 0.49 0.044 63483 -34 61 42
SSB (2028) =Blim^^ 91316 83792 7524 0.56 0.52 0.047 61563 -36 66 52
SSB (2028) =BPA = MSYBtrigger 64443 59391 5053 0.36 0.33 0.028 78405 -18.2 17.4 2.2
SSB (2028) = SSB(2027) 37244 34446 2799 0.187 0.173 0.0141 95857 0 -32 0.1
F = F2026 43416 40123 3292 0.22 0.21 0.0169 91866 -4.2 -21 0.1
Catch (2027) = TAC (2026) 54912 50673 4239 0.29 0.27 0.023 84479 -11.9 0 0.1




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027 (95857 tonnes).
** Total catch in 2027 relative to the catch advice value for 2026 (54912 tonnes).
*** The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim, fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference point.
^ The EU multiannual plan (MAP; EU, 2019).
^^ The probability is not exactly 0.50 because of the asymmetric error distribution.
^^^ 0.1 means less than 1%