Advice and Scenarios Database



Saithe (Pollachius virens) in subareas 4, 6 and Division 3.a (North Sea, Rockall and West of Scotland, Skagerrak and Kattegat)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pok.27.3a46
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
22504
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932291






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Projected landings
Projected discards*
Projected landings Div. 3.a and Subarea 4 ^^
Projected landings Subarea 6 ^^
Ftotal (ages 4–7)
Fprojected landings (ages 4–7)
Fprojected discards (ages 4–7)
SSB
% SSB change **
% TAC change ^
% advice change ^
Probability of SSB < Blim
2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 2028
(t) (t) (t) (t) (t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB (2027)/MSYBtrigger 48320 45768 2552 41466 4302 0.208 0.2 0.008 174223 32 -19 -19.7 11.2
Other scenarios
FMSY lower × SSB (2027)/MSYBtrigger 31643 29999 1644 27179 2820 0.132 0.127 0.005 185947 41 -47 -47 5.7
FMSY lower 44610 42273 2337 38299 3974 0.191 0.184 0.007 176824 34 -25 -26 9.7
FMSY 62827 59482 3345 53891 5591 0.279 0.27 0.011 164098 24 5.3 4.4 18.4
F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 208459 58 -100 -100 1.26
FPA 65008 61540 3468 55755 5785 0.29 0.28 0.011 162597 23 9 8 19.9
SSB (2028) = Blim 102045 96569 5476 87492 9077 0.5 0.48 0.019 137653 4 71 70 50
SSB (2028) = BPA = MSYBtrigger 24319 23076 1243 20907 2169 0.1 0.096 0.004 191280 45 -59 -60 3.7
F = F2026 70447 66688 3759 60419 6269 0.32 0.31 0.012 158791 20 18.1 17.1 23
TAC2026 59661 56480 3181 51171 5309 0.26 0.25 0.01 166314 26 0 -0.84 16.8
TAC2026 -15% 50714 48033 2681 43518 4515 0.22 0.21 0.009 172526 30 -15 -15.7 12.2
TAC2026 +15% 68610 64943 3667 58838 6105 0.31 0.3 0.011 160051 21 15 14 22
TAC2026 -20% 47730 45210 2520 40960 4250 0.21 0.198 0.008 174628 32 -20 -21 11
TAC2026 +25% 74577 70587 3990 63952 6635 0.34 0.33 0.014 155934 17.8 25 24 26
P(SSB (2028) < Blim) = 5% 28446 26972 1474 24437 2535 0.118 0.114 0.004 188235 42 -52 -53 5




Symbol Footnotes
* Including BMS landings. Assuming recent discard rate.
** SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027
*** The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028.This probability relates to the short-termprobability of SSB < Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB < Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^ Total advised catch in 2027 relative to the advice value (60 167tonnes) and TAC (59 661tonnes) in 2026.
^^ Projected landings split according to the average in 1993–1998, as agreed by the relevant management authorities, i.e. 90.6% in Subarea 4 and Subdivision 3.a.20 and 9.4% in Subarea 6.