Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected Surviving discards	Projected dead discards	Total projected discards*	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards**	Spawing-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change***	% advice change^	Probability of SSB lt Blim (%) ^^^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2028
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F=0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3999	25	-100	48
Other scenarios
FMSY × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger	316	55	104	157	261	0.072	0.0121	0.06	3806	18.6	-48	57
FMSY	818	143	270	405	675	0.196	0.033	0.163	3497	9	33	70
FMSY lower × SSB2027/MSYBtrigger	217	38	72	107	179	0.049	0.0082	0.041	3866	20	-65	54
FMSY upper × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger	465	82	153	230	384	0.107	0.018	0.089	3708	15.6	-24	61
F = FMSY lower	570	100	188	282	470	0.133	0.022	0.111	3638	13.4	-7.2	64
F = FMSY upper	1173	206	387	581	968	0.29	0.049	0.24	3273	2	91	76
F = FPA	1542	270	509	763	1272	0.4	0.068	0.34	3021	-5.8	151	83
SSB2028=Blim	57	10	19	28	47	0.0127	0.0021	0.0105	3958	23	-91	50
SSB2028=BPA^^
SSB2028 = MSYBtrigger ^^
Rollover advice	614	108	203	304	506	0.144	0.024	0.12	3618	12.8	0	65
F=F2026	1090	191	360	539	899	0.27	0.045	0.22	3320	3.5	78	75
SSB2028 = SSB2027	1261	221	416	624	1040	0.32	0.053	0.26	3209	0	105	78

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Dead+surviving projected discards.
**	Fprojected discards concerns dead projected discards only.
***	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
^	Advice value for 2027 relative to the advice value for 2026 (614 tonnes). TAC 2026 was equal to the advice value.
^^	These options were left blank because they cannot be achieved in 2028, even with zero catch in 2027.
^^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB lt Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB lt Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.