Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	SSB	SSB change*	Advice change^	Probability of SSB (2028) Lt Blim (%)^^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2028
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = FMSY	23721	22644	1077	0.28	0.24	0.04	81376	-7.9	16.1	0
Other scenarios
EU MAP**: FMSY	23721	22644	1077	0.28	0.24	0.04	81376	-7.9	16.1	0
EU MAP**: FMSYlower	16362	15622	740	0.184	0.157	0.027	88241	-0.14	-19.9	0
EU MAP**: FMSYupper	32597	31082	1515	0.41	0.35	0.059	73190	-17.2	60	0
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	103295	16.9	-100	0
FPA	33220	31681	1539	0.42	0.36	0.061	72582	-17.9	63	0
F = F2026	7576	7231	345	0.081	0.069	0.0116	96341	9	-63	0
SSB2028 = Blim	108218	101075	7143	6.7	5.7	0.96	8542	-90	430	51
SSB2028 = Bpa	102945	96955	5990	4.4	3.8	0.63	11870	-87	400	32
SSB2028 = MSYBtrigger	101510	95626	5884	4	3.4	0.58	12877	-85	400	29
SSB2028 = SSB2027	16224	15487	737	0.182	0.156	0.026	88366	0	-21	0

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB2028 relative to SSB2027
**	EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
^	Total catch advice for 2027 relative to the advice for 2026 (20 432tonnes).
^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB Lt Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB Lt Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.