Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	F total	F projected landings	F projected discards	Spawningstock biomass (SSB)	SSB change	total allowable catch (TAC)^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and precautionary considerations: F=0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3274	0.36	-100
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger	104	91	14	0.043	0.037	0.0054	3147	-3.5	-37
EU MAP**: FMSY lower × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger	86	75	11	0.035	0.031	0.0045	3169	-2.9	-48
EU MAP**: FMSY lower	328	285	43	0.141	0.123	0.178	2878	-11.8	99
F= FECO	345	300	45	0.149	0.13	0.0188	2858	-12.4	109
FECO × SSB2027/MSY Btrigger	91	79	12	0.037	0.033	0.0047	3163	-3	-45
F = FMSY	392	341	52	0.171	0.149	0.022	2802	-14.1	138
F = Fpa	514	447	68	0.23	0.2	0.029	2658	-18.5	210
F = F2026	23	20	3	0.0094	0.0082	0.00119	3245	-0.51	-86
Rollover TAC	165	143	22	0.069	0.06	0.0087	3073	-5.9	0
SSB2028 = SSB2027	10	8	1	0.0039	0.0034	0.00049	3262	0	-94
SSB2028 = Blim***
SSB2028 =BPA = MSY Btrigger***

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027
**	EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
***	The Blim, BPA, and MSY Btrigger options were left blank because none of them can be achieved in 2028, even with zero catch in 2027.
^	Total advice in 2027 relative to the TAC in 2026 (165 tonnes).