Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch (2027)	Ftotal (2027)	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB, 2027)	SSB (2028)	% SSB change*	% total allowable catch (TAC) change **	% advice change***	% probability SSB below Blim in 2028^
	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2027	2028
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU multiannual plan (MAP)^^: FMSY	324277	0.34	1452379	1449727	0	32	44	0
EU MAP^^: range Flower	253819	0.26	1480717	1534014	3.6	3.5	44	0
EU MAP^^: range Fupper	332885	0.35	1448270	1439576	-0.6	36	44	0
Other scenarios
F = 0	0	0	1573931	1877675	19.3	-100	-100	0
F = FPA	332885	0.35	1448270	1439576	-0.6	36	48	0
SSB (2028) = Blim	1330330	2.3	902109	458544	-49	443	492	50
SSB (2028) = BPA	1224891	1.97	975365	540521	-45	400	445	36
SSB (2028) = MSY Btrigger	1224891	1.97	975365	540521	-45	400	445	36
SSB (2028) = SSB (2026)	622309	0.73	1313228	1123690	-14.4	154	177	0.2
F=F2026	310516	0.32	1458245	1466629	0.57	27	38	0
p(SSB [2028] below Blim) =5 %	869977	1.14	1190134	865500	-27	255	287	4.9

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB2028 relative to SSB2027
**	Catch in 2027 relative to the sum of autonomous quotas in 2026 (245 175 t = EU quota of 201 975 t + Russian Federation quota of 43 200 t).
***	Advice value this year relative to the advice value last year (224616 t).
^	The probability of SSB being below SSB reference points in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^	Advice value this year relative to the advice value last year for the multiannual plan (MAP) range Flower (176 056 t) and MAP range Fupper (230 518t). MAP (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023).