Catch scenarios

Basis	TotalCatch *	Projected Landings *	Projected Discards **	FTotal	SSB	% SSB change ***	% Advice change ^	Probability SSB below Blim ^^^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2028
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = FMSY	19334	10501	8833	0.149	106073	-0.064	16.9	0
Other scenarios
F equals 0	0	0	0	0	114085	0.0062	-100	0
FMSY (lower)	17882	9722	8160	0.137	106654	-0.059	8.2	0
FMSY (upper)	19334	10501	8833	0.149	106073	-0.064	16.9	0
F equal to F2025	2742	1506	1236	0.02	112923	-0.004	-83	0
Fpa	19334	10501	8833	0.149	106073	-0.064	16.9	0
SSB (2028) at MSY Btrigger^^
p(SSB [2028]) below Blim is 5%^^

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Assuming recent discard rate.
**	Including below minimum size (BMS) landings (EU stocks), assuming recent discard rate, including surviving discards.
***	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
^	Advice value for 2027 relative to advice value for 2026 (16 533 tonnes; [ICES, 2025a]).
^^	Note that, under the current stock conditions, the target SSB of these scenarios are not achievable within the limits of fishing pressure used in the forecasting procedure.
^^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.