Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 25-29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.25-2932
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
23758
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932081






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch (2027)
Fishing mortality F2027/FMSY
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)2028/MSY Btrigger
% SSB change**
% advice change
% probability of SSB (2028) below Blim*
Probability of SSB (2028) below MSY Btrigger(%)*
2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2028 2028
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU multiannual plan (MAP)^: FMSY 274322 1 1.13 7.5 74 0.127 36
EU MAP^ : range Flower 211363 0.75 1.18 12 76 0.033 31
EU MAP^ : range Fupper 324914 1.21 1.1 4 73 0.27 40
Other scenarios
F = 0 0 0 1.33 27 -100 0 15.7
SSB (2028) = Blim ^^
SSB (2028) = MSY Bpa 449708 1.78 1 -4.7 185 1.27 50
SSB (2028) = MSY Btrigger 449708 1.78 1 -4.7 185 1.27 50
SSB (2028) = SSB (2027) 382252 1.46 1.05 0.026 142 0.66 44
F = F2026 164143 0.57 1.21 15.2 3.9 0.0067 28
p(SSB( 2028 ) below Blim)=5%^^^ 589117 2.5 0.9 -14.3 270 5 59




Symbol Footnotes
* The probability of SSB being below SSB reference points in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and MSY Btrigger and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim and MSY Btrigger tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
** SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023). Relative advice changes corresponding to the EU MAP advice of 157 996 [FMSY], 120 378 [Flower] tonnes, and 188 090 [Fupper] respectively.
^^ Note that, under the current stock conditions, the target SSB of these scenarios by the year 2028 is not achievable within the limits of fishing pressure in the forecasting procedure
^^^ p(SSB (2028) <; Blim) = 5 % is 4.99 but rounded to 5.