Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch (2027)	F (2027)	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB, 2027)#	SSB (2028)#	% SSB change**	% advice change***	% probability SSB below Blim in 2028 (%)^^^
	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2028
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU multiannual plan (MAP)*: FMSY##	33494	0.28	129275	128888	-0.3	8.3	0.1
EU MAP*: MAP range Flower^	25832	0.21	130889	137201	4.8	7.8	0.001
EU MAP*: MAP range Fupper^^	38696	0.33	128161	123483	-3.7	8.6	0.4
Other scenarios
F=0	0	0	136136	166027	22	-100	0.001
F=FPA	40709	0.35	127656	121288	-5	31.7	0.4
SSB (2027)=SSB (2028)##	33104	0.28	129367	129368	0	7.1	0.1
SSB (2028)=Blim	110594	1.44	105851	52076	-51	258	50
SSB (2028)=BPA = MSY Btrigger	87916	0.97	114008	72907	-36	184	21
F=F2026	28074	0.23	130438	133997	2.7	-9.2	0.001
p(SSB[2028] belowBlim)=5%	63401	0.61	121714	98030	-19.5	105	4.9

Symbol	Footnotes
*	MAP (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023).
**	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
***	Total catch in 2027 relative to ICES advice for 2026 (30913tonnes for the Gulf of Riga herring stock).
#	For spring-spawning stocks, SSB is determined at spawning time and is influenced by fisheries between 01 January and spawning (set for May).
##	Differences between scenarios are caused by rounding.
^	ICES advice for Flower for 2027 relative to ICES advice for EU MAP range Flower for 2026 (23962 tonnes).
^^	ICES advice for Fupper for 2027 relative to ICES advice for EU MAP range Fupper for 2026 (35643 tonnes).
^^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.