Advice and Scenarios Database



Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 30 and 31 (Gulf of Bothnia)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
her.27.3031
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
22377
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932087






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch (2027)
Fages3-7 (2027)
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB, 2028)
% SSB change*
% total allowable catch (TAC) change**
% advice change
Probability SSB below Blim in 2028 (%)^
Probability SSB below MSY Btrigger in 2028 (%)^
2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 2028 2028
(t) (ratio) (t) (t) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
EU multiannual plan (MAP)^^: FMSY × SSB(2027)/MSY Btrigger 90391 0.21 570390 -3.5 62 44 1.92 65
EU MAP^^: MAP range Flower × SSB(2027)/MSY Btrigger 80767 0.186 579600 -1.95 45 45 1.58 62
Other scenarios
F = 0 0 0 657124 11.2 -100 -100 0.16 35
FMSY 93506 0.218 567410 -4 67 49 2 67
Flower^^ 83581 0.193 576907 -2.4 50 50 1.74 63
FPA = FMSY upper~ 93506 0.218 567410 -4 67 49 2 67
Fupper × SSB (2027)/MSYBtrigger~ 90391 0.21 570390 -3.5 62 44 1.92 65
SSB (2028)=Blim# 280673 0.812 389930 -34 402 348 50 99
SSB (2028)= BPA# 146626 0.361 516710 -13 162 134 6.6 81
SSB (2028)= MSYBtrigger# 45544 0.102 613360 3.8 -19 -27 0.46 50
SSB (2028)= SSB (2027)# 68736 0.157 591123 0 23 9.7 1.14 58
F=F2025 57308 0.129 602076 1.85 2.6 -8.6 0.86 54
P(SSB [2028] <; Blim) below 5 %^^^ 134473 0.327 528290 -10.6 141 115 5 78




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
** Catch in 2027 relative to the assumed catch in 2026 (55 869 tonnes).
# Based on stochastic forecasts, using the F with three decimals to get close to the biomass target.
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim or MSY Btrigger in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB below Blim or MSYBtrigger and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB below Blim or MSY Btrigger tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023). Relative advice changes corresponding to Flower advice values for 2026 are 55 869 [Flower] tonnes.
^^^ P(SSB [2028] <; Blim) below 5 % is 4.98 %, but rounded to one decimal in the table.
~ Advice values for 2027 relative to the 2026 value corresponding to FMSY upper.