Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	Spawing-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change*	% advice change^	Probability of SSB lt Blim (%)^^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2028	2028
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = FMSY	548	472	76	0.164	0.127	0.037	4267	-0.91	0.55	0.01
Other scenarios
FMSY lower	425	366	59	0.125	0.097	0.028	4375	1.6	-22	0
FMSY upper	607	523	84	0.183	0.142	0.041	4216	-2.1	11.4	0.02
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4771	10.8	-100	0
F = FPA	607	523	84	0.183	0.142	0.041	4216	-2.1	11.4	0.02
SSB2028 = Blim	2944	2505	439	1.4	1.09	0.32	2235	-48	440	50
SSB2028 = Bpa = MSY Btrigger	1871	1603	268	0.69	0.53	0.156	3129	-27	240	9.8
SSB2028 = SSB2027	504	434	70	0.15	0.116	0.034	4306	0	-7.5	0
F = F2026	583	502	81	0.175	0.135	0.04	4238	-1.58	7	0.02

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
^	Advice value for 2027 relative to the advice value for 2026 (545 tonnes). TAC 2026 was equal to the advice value.
^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB lt Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB lt Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.