Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards^	Ftotal (ages 3–7)	Fprojected landings (ages 3–7)	Fprojected discards (ages 3-7)	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change*	% total allowable catch (TAC) change**	% advice change**	Probability of SSB (2028) < Blim***
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2027	2028
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
MSY approach: SBB(2028) = Blim	163	132	31	0.024	0.019	0.005	11181	14.1	-87	-87	50
Other scenarios
FMSY × SSB(2027)/ MSYBtrigger	926	750	176	0.144	0.117	0.027	10318	5.3	-27	-27	70
FMSYlower× SSB(2027)/ MSYBtrigger	644	521	123	0.098	0.08	0.018	10639	8.6	-49	-49	63
F = 0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11369	16	-100	-100	45
FPA	1891	1535	356	0.318	0.259	0.059	9226	-5.8	48	48	89
SSB (2028) = Blim	163	132	31	0.024	0.019	0.005	11181	14.1	-87	-87	50
SSB(2028)=BPA= MSYBtrigger#
F = F2026	1238	1002	236	0.197	0.16	0.037	9964	1.7	-2.9	-2.9	77
FMSY lower	1000	810	190	0.156	0.127	0.029	10235	4.5	-22	-22	72
FMSY	1421	1152	269	0.23	0.187	0.043	9756	-0.42	11.5	11.5	81
p(SSB(2028) <; Blim) = 5%##

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
**	Total advised catch in 2028 relative to the advice value 2027 and TAC (both 1275tonnes).
***	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2027. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB < Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB < Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
#	BPA and MSY Btrigger cannot be achieved in 2028, even with zero catches.
##	p(SSB(2028) <; Blim) = 5% cannot be achieved in 2028, even with zero catches.
^	Including below minimum size (BMS) landings, assuming recent discard rate.