Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod (Gadus morhua) in divisions 7.e-k (eastern English Channel and southern Celtic Seas)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
cod.27.7e-k
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
22676
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932036






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Ftotal
SSB
SSB change*
Total allowable catch (TAC) change**
Probability of SSB Lt Blim^^
2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2028
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: F = 0 0 0 428 310 -100 100
Other scenarios
FMSY×SSB2027/MSYBtrigger 1 0.0052 426 310 -99 100
EU MAP***: FMSYlower×SSB2027/MSYBtrigger 1 0.003 427 310 -99 100
EU MAP***: FMSYupper×SSB2027/MSYBtrigger 2 0.0074 425 310 -99 100
F = FMSY 67 0.29 333 220 -65 100
F = FMSY lower 41 0.17 369 250 -79 100
F = FMSY upper 90 0.41 300 188 -53 100
F = FPA 148 0.77 222 113 -22 100
SSB2028 = SSB2027 244 1.72 104 0 28 100
F = F2026 219 1.41 133 28 15 100
SSB2028 =Blim^
SSB2028= BPA=MSYBtrigger^




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB2028 relative to SSB2027
** Total catch in 2027 relative to 2026 TAC (191 tonnes).
*** EU multiannual plan (MAP) for the Western Waters (EU, 2019).
^ The Blim, BPA, and MSYBtrigger options were left blank because none of them can be achieved in 2028, even with zero catch in 2027.
^^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB Lt Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB Lt Blim; fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.