Advice and Scenarios Database



Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in divisions 3.a and 4.a East (Skagerrak and Kattegat and northern North Sea in the Norwegian Deep)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
pra.27.3a4a
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
22618
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932306






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
Ftotal/Fmgt
Spawning- stock biomass (SSB2027)/B mgt
Spawning- stock biomass (SSB2027)/B lim
% probability^ of SSB 2027 above B lim
% SSB change*
% total allowable catch (TAC) change **
% advice change***
2026 2026 2027 2027 2027 2027 2026 2026
(t) (ratio) (ratio) (ratio) (%) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Long-term management plan: F2026 = Fmgt × (SSB 2026/B mgt ) 4612 0.55 0.68 1.22 10 25 15 15
Other scenarios
F2026 = 0 0 0 0.87 1.57 0 60 -100 -100
F2026 = FPA 8541 1.13 0.52 0.93 65 -4.4 113 113
F2026 = F 2025 4371 0.51 0.69 1.24 9 27 9 9
SSB 2027 = B lim 7619 0.98 0.56 1 50 3 90 90
SSB 2027 = B PA = MSY B trigger = B mgt ^^
P(SSB 2027 = B lim ) = 0.95 3649 0.42 0.72 1.29 4.9 32 -9 -9




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2027/B mgt relative to predicted SSB 2026/B mgt .
** Advised catch in 2026 relative to TAC in 2025 (4 010 tonnes).
*** Advised catch in 2026 relative to advised catch in 2025 (4 010 tonnes)
^ Note that this probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; B lim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; B lim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.
^^ None of B PA , MSY B trigger or B mgt can be achieved in 2027, even with zero catches.