Advice and Scenarios Database



Horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in Division 9.a (Atlantic Iberian waters)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
hom.27.9a
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
23760
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932120






Catch scenarios


Basis
Catches
F
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
% SSB change*
% catch change**
% advice change***
Probability of SSB falling below Blim ^,#
2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 2028
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%) (ratio)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY 59950 0.115 524747 -2.9 204 6.1 0.001
Other scenarios
F=0 0 0 580111 7.4 -100 -100 0.001
F=F2025 20193 0.037 561421 3.9 2.2 -64 0.001
F=F2025×1.2 24141 0.045 557771 3.2 22 -57 0.001
F=F2025×1.6 31951 0.06 550557 1.91 62 -43 0.001
F=F2025×2.0 39646 0.075 543456 0.6 101 -30 0.001
FPA 75054 0.146 510861 -5.4 280 33 0.001
SSB (2028)=Blim 424569 1.38 200100 -63 2000 650 0.5
SSB (2028)=BPA = MSYBtrigger 333270 0.91 279000 -48 1590 490 0.035




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027 (540228 tonnes).
** Advised catches in 2027 relative to ICES estimates of catches in 2025 (19749 tonnes).
*** Advised catches for 2027 relative to the advised catches for 2026 (56520 tonnes).
# 0.001 means less than 0.001
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim. Fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations for estimating fishing mortality reference points.