Catch scenarios

Basis	Total Catch	F	Spawning-stock biomass	% SSB change*	% total allowable catc (TAC) change**
	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027
	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Management Plan^	127807	0.31	233227	13	-22
Other scenarios
F = 0	0	0	309876	56	-100
F = Fsq^^	156301	0.4	204558	4	-5
Fmp = 0.32##	129758	0.32	221940	12	-21
F(mp)(35th percentile)^^^	121840	0.3	227170	15	-26
Fmp (Mohn's Rho)#	119921	0.29	228440	16	-27

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027
**	Catch advice in 2027 relative to TAC in 2026 (164 149 tonnes).
***	Catch advice in 2027 relative to the advice value for 2026 (164 149 tonnes).
#	“Mohn’s rho correction” is the advice that would result if it is assumed that the average retrospective trend over the last five years were to repeat for 2026 (and hence reduce the estimated stock) once the assessment is run again in 2027.
##	Apply the FMP=0.32 in 2027 without using the three-year look ahead part of the HCR
^	Since SSB in 2027 is below MP Btrigger = 220 000 tonnes, catch advice is based on an average of a three-year catch forecast using F = 0.32×SSB2027/MP Btrigger = 0.29. The relevant predicted catches are 118 196 tonnes (2027), 129 376 tonnes (2028), and 135 848 tonnes (2029), which give an average of 127 807 tonnes. A quota based on this average does not consider the ±15% reduction cap in TAC as outlined in the existing harvest control rule (HCR). This is not applied as SSB (2027) is below MP Btrigger. A 15% cap would give an advice of 139 527 tonnes
^^	Fsq: for the interim year F is assumed to be the same as F in 2027.
^^^	The catches and stock development that would result from applying a more cautious catch level based on the lower 35th percentile of the stock distribution (rather than the median).