Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Projected recreational removals*	F total	Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)	% SSB change**	% total allowable catch (TAC) change ***	% advice change^	% probability of SSB < Blim ^^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2027	2028
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY x SSB2027/MSY Btrigger	209	14	174	21	0.121	2374	77	-68	4.5	0.3
Other scenarios
FMSY	351	23	292	35	0.21	2214	65	-46	76	1.9
FPA	1071	71	892	107	0.78	1441	7.5	66	436	76
F=0	0	0	0	0	0	2622	96	-100	-100	0.1
FMSYlower	272	18	227	27	0.16	2302	72	-58	36	0.9
FMSYlower SSB2027/MSYBtrigger	161	11	134	16	0.092	2430	81	-75	-19.5	0.2
SSB2028=Blim	849	57	707	85	0.58	1670	25	31	325	50
SSB2028=MSY Btrigger = BPA	252	17	210	25	0.148	2322	73	-61	26	0.5
SSB2028=SSB2027	1174	78	978	118	0.88	1341	0	82	487	86
F=F2026	1093	73	911	109	0.8	1420	5.9	69	447	79
P(SSB2028 <; Blim) = 5%	463	31	386	46	0.28	2084	55	-28	132	5

Symbol	Footnotes
*	Recreational estimates are based on the proportion of catches attributed to recreational removals in 2025 (10%).
**	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
***	Total advice in 2027 relative to the TAC in 2026 (646tonnes).
^	Advice value for 2027 relative to the advice value for 2026 (200 tonnes).
^^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim; fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.