Advice and Scenarios Database



Cod in Subarea 4, divisions 6.a and 7.d, and Subdivision 20 (North Sea, West of Scotland, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak)
StockCode (Assessment Component)
cod.27.46a7d20 (Viking Substock)
Assessment Year
2026
Stock Category
1
Purpose
Advice
Published
Stock Assessment Key
26001
Link to Advice Sheet
https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932018






Catch scenarios


Basis
Total catch
F total (2-4)
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB)
SSB change*
advice change**
Probability of SSB less than Blim^^
2027 2027 2028 2028 2027 2028
(t) (ratio) (t) (%) (%) (%)
ICES Basis Advice
Precautionary considerations F= 0 0 0 24195 51 1.4
Other scenarios
F2027 = F2026 x 0.36*** 3264 0.105 20754 29 6.9
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY×SSB(2027)/MSYBtrigger 4870 0.163 19080 18.8 12.2
FMSY lower × SSB (2027)/MSYBtrigger 3123 0.1 20931 30 6.7
FMSY 5763 0.198 18226 13.5 15.8
FMSY lower 3728 0.121 20240 26 8.4
FPA 10290 0.41 13749 -14.4 52
SSB (2028) = Blim 9999 0.39 14027 -12.7 50
SSB (2028) = MSY Btrigger = BPA 4444 0.147 19492 21 11.1
F = F2026 7959 0.292 15999 -0.41 31
SSB(2028)=SSB(2027) 7889 0.289 16065 0 31
P(SSB(2028) <; Blim) = 5% ^ 2281 0.071 21804 36 5




Symbol Footnotes
* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027 (16 065 t).
** Advice value for 2027 relative to the corresponding advice value for 2026 (0 t).
*** F multiplier that equates approximately to the cumulative substock advice, 8574 t (3717 t + 3264 t + 1593 t), when following the MSY approach for the Northwestern and Viking substocks and MSY approach with precautionary considerations for the Southern substock independently and equates to a total catch of 8574 t (3704 t + 4870 t + 0 t).
^ The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim tested in simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points.