Catch scenarios

Basis	Total catch	Projected landings	Projected discards	Ftotal	Fprojected landings	Fprojected discards	SSB	% SSB change*	% advice change**	% probability of being below Blim in 2028^
	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2027	2028	2028	2027	2028
	(t)	(t)	(t)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(ratio)	(t)	(%)	(%)	(%)
ICES Basis Advice
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: SSB (2028) = Blim	1993	1207	786	0.083	0.025	0.058	17286	-10.9	-63	50
Other scenarios
Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach: FMSY × SSB (2027)/MSY Btrigger	3638	2188	1450	0.159	0.048	0.111	15729	-18.8	-32	64
MSY approach: FMSY lower × SSB (2027) /MSY Btrigger	3049	1836	1213	0.131	0.039	0.092	16293	-16.1	-43	58
F=0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19044	-1.89	-100	34
F= FMSY	4653	2777	1876	0.21	0.063	0.147	14798	-24	-13.3	70
F= FMSY lower	3920	2353	1567	0.173	0.052	0.121	15462	-20	-27	65
F= FPA	4653	2777	1876	0.21	0.063	0.147	14798	-24	-13.3	70
SSB(2028)=BPA=MSYBtrigger^^
SSB (2028)=SSB (2027)^^
F=F2026	569	345	224	0.023	0.007	0.016	18559	-4.4	-89	39
P(SSB(2028) <; Blim) = 5%^^

Symbol	Footnotes
*	SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.
**	Advice value for 2027 relative to the corresponding 2026 value (5364 tonnes).
^	The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2028. This probability relates to the short-term probability of SSB <; Blim and is not comparable to the long-term probability of SSB <; Blim. Fishing mortalities less than FPA have been shown to have less than 5% probability of the stock being below Blim in the long term when tested through simulations when estimating fishing mortality reference points
^^	These options were left blank because they cannot be achieved in 2028, even with zero catch in 2027.